Spurs, Knicks square off in Alamo City
Basketball Betting Lines
03/10/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Antonio Spurs will have to continue their playoff
push tonight against the New York Knicks without star guard Tony Parker.
The team did receive some good news on Monday, however, when it was learned
that Parker won't need surgery for a broken bone in his right hand. An
examination of the All-Star confirmed an initial diagnosis of a non-displaced
stable fracture of the right fourth metacarpal and Parker is still expected to
be sidelined for about six weeks, which likely means he will not return until
the postseason.
Parker, the Spurs' second-leading scorer this season at 16.5 points per game,
originally suffered the injury late in the first half of last Saturday's
102-92 win over the Memphis Grizzlies.
Without him, San Antonio fell in Cleveland on Monday when Mo Williams had 17
points, eight rebounds and eight assists, as the Cavaliers edged the Spurs,
97-95, despite playing without LeBron James and Shaquille O'Neal.
Manu Ginobili had a huge night for the Spurs, sinking seven three-pointers on
his way to 38 points. He appeared to hit a game-tying three with 14.2 seconds
left, but it was ruled a two-pointer after review.
George Hill added 23 points for San Antonio, which had its four-game win
streak broken.
"We had a great opportunity, not many teams can come in here and win,"
Ginobili said. "LeBron wasn't playing, Shaq wasn't there [because of thumb
surgery] and [Antawn] Jamison didn't play the second half, so we blew a big
one, so we are kind of upset with that."
The Spurs currently sit in seventh place in the Western Conference playoff
race, a still comfortable 4 1/2 games ahead of ninth-place Memphis.
The Knicks, meanwhile, are playing out the string but are coming off an
exciting 99-98 win over playoff-bound Atlanta on Monday. Danilo Gallinari made
four three-pointers and finished with a game-high 27 points in that one, as
New York escaped with the victory at Madison Square Garden.
David Lee contributed a double-double with 19 points and 13 rebounds, while Al
Harrington went for 14 points off the bench for the Knicks, who were able to
recover from a 113-93 loss to New Jersey on Saturday.
"I thought our team the whole game did a good job competing on the boards, did
a good job competing for loose balls," Lee said. "We did a good job overall."
New York, which had lost four of its last five coming into the contest, made
10-of-15 three-pointers after setting an NBA record by going 0-for-18 from
three-point range in the setback to the Nets.
The Spurs have won eight of their past nine meetings with the Knicks,
including a 95-88 win in New York earlier this season. San Antonio has also
won six straight over the Knicks in the Alamo City.
<< Heat begin key homestand with visit from Clippers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Miami Heat are fighting for their playoff lives and
hope to gain some ground during a six-game homestand that starts with
tonight's matchup versus the Los Angeles Clippers at AmericanAirlines Arena.
The Heat have won t
<< Bobcats hope to end road woes in Philadelphia
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Robert Frost's poem "The Road Not Taken" easily coincides
with how the Charlotte Bobcats have been playing this season. The road less
traveled would be the one headed towards Charlotte, and that's made all the
difference for
<< Pearce: Owen's England career not over
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The England door remains open to Michael
Owen despite his season-ending injury, according to Under-21 coach Stuart
Pearce.
Pearce has dismissed suggestions that the 30-year-old Manchester Uni
<< Kings visit Blackhawks for clash between West powers
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the Western Conference's best teams will meet
tonight in the Windy City as the Chicago Blackhawks host the Los Angeles Kings
at United Center.
The Blackhawks are first in the Central Division and second in the West
<< Columbus ties Toluca in Champions League
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Crew earned a hard-fought 2-2
draw with Mexican power Toluca in the first leg of their CONCACAF Champions
League quarterfinal series in Columbus on Tuesday night.
Steven Lenhart scored tw
Surging Jazz shoot for another win over Pistons >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Keeping up with Denver in both the Northwest Division and
Western Conference standings could get a bit easier tonight for the Utah Jazz,
who will shoot for their 10th straight win over the Detroit Pistons.
Utah has won 11
Stars shoot for rare win in Buffalo >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After losing its first three games after the Winter
Olympics, Dallas is coming off a victory that could very well turn its luck
around. Now all it has to do is pick up its first victory at Buffalo in over
12 years.
The St
Corvo, Walker lead Caps against Hurricanes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Both Joe Corvo and Scott Walker were given a chance to
compete on a championship-caliber team when they were traded by the Hurricanes
to the Capitals before the trade deadline. One week later, they get to show
off in front of
Smith cools Rangers title talk >>
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Walter Smith is refusing to entertain
suggestions that his Rangers side have effectively wrapped up the Scottish
Premier League title after restoring their 13-point lead at the top of the
table.
Canucks end record road trip in Phoenix >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The longest road trip in NHL history will come to an end
tonight when the Vancouver Canucks visit the Phoenix Coyotes at Jobing.com
Arena.
The Canucks are playing their 14th straight road game this evening, having
last pl
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Kansas City, MO - Kansas City has not officially named Matt Cassel its starting quarterback, but there can be no doubt now.
NFL Betting
After praising his leadership and work ethic through spring workouts, the Chiefs announced Tuesday they had signed the 27-year-old Cassel to a multiyear contract. Terms were not disclosed, but he will almost certainly be one of the highest-paid members of the team.
"We are excited to be able to reach a long-term agreement for Matt Cassel to be a Kansas City Chief for many years to come," owner and board chairman Clark Hunt said in a statement. "His proven leadership on and off the field will be a tremendous asset to the organization."
Patriots made him their franchise player, meaning his salary for this season will be about $15 million.
New head coach Todd Haley, taking over for Herm Edwards after a 2-14 season, refused to name a starter at any position during offseason workouts. But it was obvious to everyone the team belonged to Cassel.
"I go out there each and every day with that focus that I'm the starter," Cassel said during a June minicamp. "Competition brings out the best in everybody."
The signing will come as welcome news to Cassel's new coaches and teammates. Amiable and hardworking, online football betting he appeared to win over everyone at minicamp.
"I think he's got some unique leadership qualities. I think his teammates like him and have respect for him. I think he's doing a pretty good job on the field, too," Haley said last month. "He's doing everything that I'm asking him, that our coaches are asking him to do. I don't have one single complaint how he's carrying himself."
After one workout, wide receiver Devard Darling declared Cassel "a breath of fresh air."
"He has a lot of swagger, a lot of confidence. It's good for us," said Darling. "We trust in him that he's going to go out there and lead us all the way."
nse to accommodate his specific abilities.
Trapped on the bench behind Heisman winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart at USC and then unable to unseat Super Bowl MVP Brady at New England, Cassel seemed destined to be a backup all his life. As Brady was helped off the field last September, Cassel seized the opportunity he'd been waiting for since high school.
In his only sustained action since his teens, he hit 349 of 555 passes for 3,949 yards at New England. He had 23 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions as the Patriots, who had gone unbeaten through the regular season the year before, finished 11-5 and out of the playoffs.
Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli, who had been Bill Belichick's assistant in New England, engineered the trade after the Patriots became convinced that Brady would recover fully from his knee operation.
"Since Matt arrived in Kansas City, he has embraced the team and the community," Pioli said. "His work ethic, his ability and competitive presence is what we expect from our players."
NFL Betting Lines
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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