Turf to Dirt Angle Works Best
Horseracing Betting Lines
03/09/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Both of Saturday's three-year-old
Kentucky Derby preps were won by horses that raced on the turf in their
previous start. One was favored at Aqueduct while the other was the sixth
choice in the betting at Santa Anita.
Awesome Act was favored in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes despite not having raced
since November 7, 2009. His most recent effort was a fourth-place finish
in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last November.
The chestnut colt came into the race with only a maiden turf victory under his
belt in six career starts. He also had never been on conventional dirt with
five grass races and one start on Polytrack in England.
Still, the public made him the 5-2 favorite in the 10-horse field and the
$240,000 yearling purchase did not disappoint winning by 1 1/4-lengths in 1:43
4/5 for the 1 1/16-miles.
The race, for all intents and purposes, was over approaching the top of the
stretch when jockey Julien Leparoux not only swept four-wide to confront the
early pacesetters, he also looked behind to see if any other horses would
present a challenge through the lane.
Only one, the second-place finisher Yawanna Twist, came within three-lengths
of the winner and the two colts combined for a $39.60 exacta, a very high
price considering they were the top two choices in the betting.
The race set up for the two closers after Wow Wow Wow stormed to the lead from
post 10, zipping the early fractions in 22 4/5 and 46 3/5 seconds - extremely
fast numbers for a two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race. In fact, the three horses that
were first, second and third after the first half-mile ended up eighth, sixth
and ninth, respectively.
For those fans quick to add Awesome Act to their Derby lists, don't forget the
fast early pace helped him immeasurably. In addition, not a single horse in
the field, including Awesome Act himself, had ever finished 'in the money' in
a graded stakes race. It's also hard to forget the fact that only one Gotham
winner has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby and that was the mighty
Secretariat.
On the positive side, it was his first career race on dirt and he seemed to
handle it with aplomb. Coming over from Europe and winning off the long layoff
was also impressive and his pedigree says 10 furlongs is easily attainable.
His sire Awesome Again won the 1998 Breeders' Cup Classic, while his dam,
Houdini's Honey, is a full sister to Coup de Genie, France's 1993 champion
two-year-old filly. Moreover, Houdini's Honey's half-brother Machiavellian,
sired Street Cry - the father of 07 Derby winner, Street Sense.
Is Awesome Act a Kentucky Derby-winning candidate? No question, but he also
must improve by leaps and bounds in the Wood Memorial to be taken seriously as
a legitimate contender. In addition, the field he'll face in four weeks will
be ten times better than the horses he beat last Saturday.
ALPHIE'S BET - THE RIGHT BET IN THE SHAM
If one was lucky enough to watch the replays of Alphie's Bet's previous three
races, then cashing in on his $19.00 win price in the Sham Stakes was like
taking candy from a baby.
The California-bred colt closed like a bandit in his second start (December 5,
2009) running his final furlong in 11 3/5 seconds. He finished fourth that
day, but trainer Alexis Barba thought so much of his performance she not only
stretched out the son of Tribal Rule to 1 1/16-miles, but placed him in the
$100,000 California Breeders' Challenge.
Dead last approaching the top of the stretch, Alphie's Bet swung out eight-
wide through the lane running his final 2 1/2 furlongs in 29 3/5 seconds to
get up for second. The winner was the undefeated Caracortado, who came right
back to take the Robert B. Lewis in his next start.
Sent off as the 6-5 favorite in his follow-up race, Alphie's Bet took to the
turf with a smashing 1 1/4-length last-to-first score after a slow start from
the gate. But it wasn't just the victory that solidified his reputation as a
solid closer it was the manner in which he overpowered the eight-horse field.
Mired in last place through the stretch and hung out to dry in the 10-path,
the bay colt unleashed his powerful strides through the lane to win going
away. The final time of 1:38 1/5 for the mile was not very imposing but
running his final furlong in 10 4/5 seconds was nothing short of incredible.
Two more signs that showed he was ready to run the race of his life came early
in the mornings of February 20 and 28. After four slow workouts between late
January and mid-February, Alphie's Bet burst out with a pair of bullet works
going six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 on the 20th and five furlongs in 1:00 flat
eight days later.
Still, the big question heading into the Sham was how he would be able to loop
a much stronger field in a race devoid of early speed. The answer? He didn't
have to!
After beginning all four of his prior races in either last or next-to-last
place, Alphie's Bet was sixth in the early going. In fact, he ran his first
half-mile in 48 2/5 - two full seconds (or 10 lengths) faster than his
previous two races!
Through the stretch, the Sham was his to lose after passing The Program and a
tiring Nextdoorneighbor. He eventually drew clew to win by 2 1/4-lengths over
the late closing Setsuko.
What was even more impressive than winning the Grade 3 event was the fact he
ran every quarter-mile in under 24 3/5 seconds. His final three furlongs was
clocked in 36 seconds flat, including a final 12-second eighth of a mile.
Tremendous numbers considering he was much closer to the pace this past
Saturday.
Alexis Barba, who also trained Make Music for Me to win the Pasadena Stakes on
the turf one race earlier, has not made any definite plans for Alphie's Bet's
next start. One race he won't be entered is the Santa Anita Derby since that
will be Make Music for Me's final Kentucky Derby prep.
HORSES TO WATCH
Three horses make the list this week, including Trappe Shot, a three-year-old
chestnut colt that will be turning heads as the year moves along.
Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the $850,000 yearling purchase pummeled a field
of 10 maidens last month by 10 1/4-lengths, running the six furlongs in a
solid 1:09 2/5 seconds.
Since Trappe Shot has only started once in 2010, it's doubtful he'll be on the
Kentucky Derby trail but he's one to watch down the road.
The two other horses are three-year-old fillies that ran last weekend at
Gulfstream Park.
Wicked Charm finished sixth in her debut on Sunday - a one mile maiden event
on the turf. She was 26-1 that day primarily due to her post position. It's
not easy to win from the 11 spot at one mile on the weeds due to the short run
to the first turn. She also broke slowly from the gate, compounding her
position.
Still, she closed strongly, running her final quarter in 23 4/5 to finish
sixth, beaten by only six lengths. The fact she was 26-1, along with her
sixth-place finish, might help getting decent odds in her next start. And by
the way, she's by Ghostzapper and a half-sister to English Channel - the 2007
Eclipse Award-winning male turf horse.
Apple Charlotte, the other three-year-old filly, finished second in Saturday's
Herecomesthebride Stakes at nine furlongs on the turf. She had a boatload of
trouble checking early in the race and then clipping the heels of Upperline at
the top of the stretch. Despite the tough trip, she closed stoutly for second,
missing the victory by less than a length.
THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12
1) Dublin; 2) Super Saver; 3) Eskendereya; 4) Lookin At Lucky; 5) Alphie's
Bet; 6) Caracortado; 7) Awesome Act; 8) Odysseus; 9) Rule; 10) Stay Put; 11)
Connemara; 12) Uptowncharlybrown.
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<< NBA suspends Granger, Frye
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National Basketball Association on Tuesday
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UL-Lafayette to look for new men's hoops coach >>
Lafayette, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The University of Louisiana-Lafayette has
decided not to retain men's basketball coach Robert Lee, whose contract
expired at the conclusion of this season.
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Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR on Tuesday indefinitely suspended
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Foxborough, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New England Patriots officially
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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting
So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.
Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?
If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)
Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).
In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.
Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)
If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
 The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.
Work left to do:
Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.
Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.
For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com
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LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP
With the first NFL preseason game less than two weeks away, it is time to start thinking about football once again at MySportsbook.com. Reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson is currently the 5-1 co-favorite to win the award again alongside Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning.
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone after his all out assault on the record books last season. For those suffering from amnesia or were under a rock last football season, all L.T. did last season was set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns (28), total touchdowns (31) and total points scored (186) to go along with his 1815 rushing yards and 508 receiving yards. At 6-1, Tom Brady is next in line which isn’t surprising considering all of the firepower the Pats added over the off-season. With the addition of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker; it would be quite difficult for Brady’s numbers not to improve from last years 3529 yards and 24 touchdowns. There appears to be some decent value in Drew Bees at 10-1 considering he probably would have won the award last year if it wasn’t for L.T.’s record breaking season.
There is no reason to think the Saints will come back to earth this season and playing in a weak NFC, they should have as good a shot as any to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. At 15-1, Donovan McNabb could also be worth a look. Remember, many felt he was the MVP of the first half of the season before going down with a season ending injury. Reportedly, he is in great shape and well ahead of schedule to return to form. Also, he could have some added motivation to put up big numbers this season with the Eagles using their first pick in the draft on McNabb’s future successor Kevin Kolb.
Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to check out the complete odds for NFL MVP as well as all of the new football related futures. With the popularity of NFL futures, these betting lines will be sure to change as the money comes in; get the early sports lines now.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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