Where do the Twins go from here?
Baseball Betting Lines
03/09/2010 -
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You could almost hear a collective groan this morning, from
Minneapolis all the way down to Fort Myers, as the news began to circulate that
Minnesota Twins closer Joe Nathan could be lost for the season because of a
torn ligament in his pitching elbow.
Outside of someone named Joe Mauer, Nathan is probably the most irreplaceable
player on the Minnesota roster. Quite frankly, you can make the argument that
Nathan is the more vital piece to the Twins' puzzle than the reigning American
League Most Valuable Player.
The bad news started for the Twins over the weekend, when Nathan experienced
tightness in his elbow after facing just one batter in an exhibition game
against the Boston Red Sox.
He then left Florida and traveled back to Minnesota for tests, which revealed
the tear. The team is going to get a second opinion, but once swelling in the
elbow subsides, Nathan, in all likelihood, will have to undergo dreaded Tommy
John surgery.
So where do the Twins go from here? With Nathan in the mix they were a heavy
favorite to once again win the AL Central. Now, not so much.
I mean, how exactly do you replace a guy who in the last five years has saved
more games than any other closer in baseball? It is impossible, you can't,
especially if you are the Twins.
There are closers out there for the taking. Cleveland's Kerry Wood and
Cincinnati's Francisco Cordero ring a bell right off the bat. The problem
there, of course, is that while the Twins could probably pull off a deal, they
are paying Nathan $11.25 million this season.
Can you really see them shelling out an additional $10+ million for the closer
position? It is not going to happen.
San Diego's Heath Bell could also probably be had. He only makes about $4
million this season, but the Twins would have to unload the farm for him.
There is an intriguing option out there for Ron Gardenhire, and he does not
have to look very far to find it. That option is lefty Francisco Liriano, who
by all accounts has looked about as good this past winter as at any time since
undergoing his own Tommy John surgery following the 2006 season.
Down in the Dominican, Liriano was throwing his fastball in the mid-90s along
with a "filthy" slider. Minnesota had high hopes for him finally living up to
that world of potential he flashed in the 2006 campaign, when he went 12-3 and
drew comparisons to Johan Santana.
Quite simply, the Twins were counting on him being their ace this season.
I had already pegged Liriano as the key to the Twins' season before I heard
the awful news on Nathan. Now, it is even more apparent that he will make or
break the Twins this season. If they decide to keep him in rotation, there is
an even bigger need for him to be an ace. And if they move him to the pen,
well, all this worrying today could be rendered moot.
Of course, I am not sure that Liriano can handle it from a physical standpoint.
It has been over three years since his own surgery, and unlike other pitchers
who have had it, he has never really been the same.
Actually, he has regressed.
If he is physically up to the task, though, he is the Twins' best option from
an in-house standpoint. But then again, if they move him, could Minnesota get
by with a rotation of Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins
and Brian Duensing?
That is not great, but it is not awful either. The Twins were a favorite to
win the division even before people knew what they were going to get from
Liriano. Not having him in the rotation may not hurt them, simply because he
was such an unknown.
Early on, it would be a struggle for Liriano to go on back-to-back nights, but
the Twins do have a former closer on their roster in right-hander Jon
Rauch, who saved 17 games for the Washington Nationals in 2008. Rauch is the
perfect guy to ease Liriano into an everyday role.
While it sounds easy enough to convert Liriano, Minnesota may not want to mess
with him any further, especially on such short notice. We are just under a
month away from the start of the season. I am not sure they can get his arm
into that kind of shape just yet. He would need a little extra conditioning in
Fort Myers.
But like I said, Rauch should be able to hold down the fort until Liriano is
ready.
I know it is more important to have a dominating ace than a closer, but
Liriano hasn't come close to being the pitcher he was before the surgery. Who
knows if he ever will be again? I say make the move now.
<< 2010 Western Athletic Conference Tournament Preview
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Hawaii Warriors may have the most
Western Athletic Conference Tournament titles with three, the last coming in
2002, but this year the islanders aren't even invited to the party as the 27th
annual event k
<< Yankee Stadium bowl game to be called Pinstripe Bowl
Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The new college football bowl game to be held at
Yankee Stadium starting in 2010 will be called the Pinstripe Bowl, with New
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Last September, the Yankees announced the bowl game th
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homestand might represent their best chance to get back into the playoff
picture. However, after a less-than-stellar start to the residency, they
should be happy to see the
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they left a crippling flu bug behind them. The team will try to snap a three-
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who look to
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(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Of all the games the Vancouver Canucks have played on their
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Clark, Randle El to return to Steelers >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Steelers have reportedly
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Antwaan Randle El back to the Steel City.
According to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazet
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Commerce City, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rapids signed goalkeeper
Ian Joyce, the Major League Soccer club announced on Tuesday. The Rapids also
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to 2010
Dallas officially adds Hartman >>
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Rooney returns to training for United >>
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Roon
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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value
If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture. Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).
For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot. The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.
TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.
"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,' it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."
"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.
Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash. Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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